Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve received several calls and emails—people have even stopped us in the store or at church—about the Farmer’s Almanac.  The National Weather Service has been taking emails and calls as well.  The universal claim from our viewers in all of these contacts is that the Farmer’s Almanac:

1)       Predicted the Great Ice Storm of 2007, within a day

2)       Says another, worse storm—a “super storm”—is headed our way in mid-February

With all the fuss and the spreading rumor, I thought it would be good to address the topic.

First of all, there are two versions of the Farmer’s Almanac, published by two separate companies.  The “Old Farmer’s Almanac” is the one with the yellow cover, and then “The Farmer’s Almanac” is the orange cover.  The forecasts are at least somewhat different, though both claim to be accurate.  In the case of the big ice storm, NEITHER book accurately forecasted the storm.  And, neither book is mentioning a “super storm” in February, either.  Here is what they say:

Mid-January forecast, coinciding with our ice storm	12th-17th. Snowstorm, then sunny, very cold.	12th-15th. Mostly fair, but bitterly cold
February Forecast	1st-7th. Rain and snow, then sunny, mild.  8th-12th. Seasonable; snow north, rain south.  13th-19th. Snow, cold north; rain south.  20th-24th. Sunny, record cold.  25th-28th. Cold, snow showers	1st-3rd. Fair weather prevails. 4th-7th. Powerful storm pushes heavy snow across Colorado, parts of Nebraska, Iowa, much of Kansas, Missouri, accumulations of a foot possible. 8th-11th. Drier, but also much colder. 12th-15th. Flurries Northern and Central Plains, points east. Frigidly cold temperatures approach 30 below in parts of Montana, North Dakota. 16th-19th. Fair at first, then stormy conditions. 20th-23rd. Mostly fair weather. 24th-28th. Milder, then some snow for Northern and Central Rockies and Plains, then fair and colder.

Yes, The Old Farmer’s Almanac got the timing right on the big ice storm, but it called for snow, not crippling ice!  Snow would have been a much better affliction, though with as much moisture as we had, it would have been around two feet of it!

Admittedly, there are some people who put some stock in the Almanac’s forecasts, which is probably why we’re getting such a response.  However, I’ve never seen any evidence that either of the Almanacs is routinely accurate.  Here are some thoughts to consider:

1)       These Almanacs don’t publish how they arrive at their forecasts.  Both will claim to be accurate, and at least the Old Farmer’s Almanac actually has a meteorologist on staff.  But, think of this:  With all the high-tech gadgetry we have today, with about a dozen high-power, sophisticated computer models running endless mathematical computations to arrive at our weather forecasts, we still have a low accuracy rate after about day four.  This is due to computer errors and inherent variability of weather!  So, if our accuracy beyond day four is in question, how then can an entertainment magazine, published in advance, and predicting weather for the entire country for a year, be any more accurate?  In my mind it falls in with wives’ tales such as the persimmon seeds and the wooly worm.  Some people swear by those things when predicting the weather, and I’ve seen them get it right here and there.  But, to rely on those things to tell of weather a few months in advance is silly. 

2)       The forecasts the Almanac puts out are broken down in to very general terms for large sections of the country.  For instance, In The Old Farmer’s Almanac, Missouri is in a section along with most of Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and western Illinois.  In The Farmer’s Almanac, the region is HUGE, with Missouri grouped together with Montana, Colorado, Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, and everything in between!  So when a forecast says that for February 5-10 there will be “snow north and cold, rain south,” how in the heck can that be reliable?  And really, during February, it is very likely that such a storm will occur at some point over a five day period in a nine-state area. Cold with snow in February?  No!  It’s like saying Florida will have scattered thunderstorms in June!  Duh!

3)       Rather than believing the Almanac is trustworthy based on one “correct” forecast, compare it to actual conditions over a period of a few months and see how accurate it is.

4)       Long range forecast is done using a combination of current global jet stream patterns, ocean temperatures and their fluctuations (which affect the jet streams), and computer models.  We can have an idea of trends several weeks away, such as colder, warmer, wetter, or drier based on the expected jet stream movements.  This is how we come up with the seasonal outlooks such as “warmer and drier this winter.”  However, we cannot, with any real degree of accuracy, predict specific storms or their intensity much more than a few days away. 

In short, if you’ve heard the buzz about the big super storm the Almanac (whichever one it is) says is coming in February, don’t start stockpiling supplies just yet.  I’m not saying it absolutely WON’T happen, but just that it cannot be predicted right now with any accuracy.  Since I don’t know everything that goes into the Almanacs’ forecasts, I have to believe that when one of them gets it right, it can be categorized in the same vein as the favorite saying: “Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then.”  J

The current pattern in the jet stream is one that brings cold air into much of the U.S.  There is expected to be some weakening of this pattern by the middle of next week (February 7^th-9^th) with moderating temperatures.  However, the weak El Nino that was present earlier in the winter has been weakening over the last few weeks.  This has already resulted in a weakened southern jet stream and more polar jet influence—hence colder and drier, overall.  I suspect this will be the trend for the remainder of the winter, with the potential for couple big-ticket winter storm events when the northern and southern jet streams interact. 

Brandon Beck
KY3 Stormteam Meteorologist
bbeck@ky3.com