EL NIÑO RETURNS
Just a year after a strong La Niña (cold water event) pointed a record-setting rainy storm track into the Ozarks during the Winter, Spring and early Summer of 2008, ocean and weather experts are now tracking a significant warming of the Pacific ocean water (El Nino) between South America and Asia, on either side of the Equator that will change global weather patterns for several months. 

WHAT HAPPENS DURING AN EL NIÑO PERIOD?
The warming and cooling of this vast area of Pacific ocean water directly impacts weather patterns for the entire planet, including North America and the United States.

"El Niño’s impacts depend on a variety of factors, such as intensity and extent of ocean warming, and the time of year. Contrary to popular belief, not all effects are negative", said Christopher Vaccaro with NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 

"On the positive side, El Niño can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. In the United States, it typically brings beneficial winter precipitation to the arid Southwest, less wintry weather across the North, and a reduced risk of Florida wildfires."

Vaccora stated in a news release, "El Niño’s negative impacts have included damaging winter storms in California and increased storminess across the southern United States. Some past El Niño’s have also produced severe flooding and mudslides in Central and South America, and drought in Indonesia."

While fewer Atlantic hurricanes mean less coastal and inland damage for the Gulf Coast states and Atlantic Seaboard, the southeastern United States is heavily dependant on the freshwater rainfall supplied by landfalling tropical cyclones.  Drought could be a result from fewer hurricane strikes this summer and fall.

IMPACTS ON THE OZARKS
Near-normal temperature and precipitation have been the most noticable trend in the Ozarks during El Nino events.

Weather researchers are unable to pinpoint any major weather impacts in the Ozarks that are directly tied to an El Niño pattern.  Contrary to a La Niña pattern, which changes the Pacific storm track enough to add precipitation to our region, El Niño's effects are hard to quantify.

Some climate data suggests previous El Niño periods have been drier than normal.  For late summer (July and August), the Ozarks is typically moving into a drier part of the year.  An El Niño pattern might enhance that a bit more, but not enough to say for certain.

In wintertime, some climate data suggests winter storms contain more liquid precipitation compared to frozen precipitation.  Once again, the connection isn't strong enough to say for certain.

HOW LONG WILL EL NIÑO LAST?
NOAA says sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Eastern Pacific, as of July 1, are at least one degree above average — a sign of El Niño. NOAA expects this El Niño to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10. 

La Niña and El Niño are not the same or related to climate change, also known as global warming.

Read more about EL NIÑO here:

>>Climate Prediction Center Discussion (technical)

>>Climate Prediction Center El Nino Page

>>FAQ about El Nino and La Nina

>>Climate Predicition Center Forecast through September 2009

>>Previous El Nino / La Nina Events