Story Published:
Mar 17, 2010 at 12:59 PM CDT
Story Updated:
Apr 1, 2010 at 3:26 PM CDT
One of the annual rites of spring is upon us again. The NCAA men's college basketball tournament begins this week. For sports fans, it's a smorgasbord of games beginning at lunch and running well into bedtime.
For the non-sports fans, it's a chance to throw down a couple of bucks, write down names like Gonzaga and Xavier, and hope your picks are right in the office bracket pool. (Even President Obama filled out a bracket.)
By some estimates, NCAA tournament bracket pools are a $2.5 billion enterprise. That's lot of money at stake for people who don't follow college basketball regularly and have to guess whether a #11 seed can beat a #6 seed.
There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible outcomes. You don't need to fill out that many. We assembled some experts in Springfield for some tips to help you pick the right one:
1. Don't over think it The last ten national champions have been a #1, #2 or #3 seed. This year, the number one seeds are Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky and Duke. Chances are two or three of them will be playing in the Final Four. (But it's very rare that all four teams are there at the end).
2. Look at the trends
The numbers play out that the better teams usually have low-numbered seeds. Consider:
- a #16 seed has never beaten a #1 seed
- #2 seeds are 88-4 against #15 seeds in the first round
- #3 seeds are 81-15 and #4 seeds 76-20 in their first round games
That makes picking a game like Duke vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff easy.
But what about those #8 vs. #9 games like Texas against Wake Forest? "I look at which team I think is going to win and go the other way," said Allen Vaughan, sports writer for TAGSGF.com.
3. Don't forget the upsetsThat's the fun of the NCAA tournament. Some multi-directional school you've never hear of knocks off a powerhouse and turns into the Big Dance's Cinderella. It happens - not often - but it happens.
Your best bets are on seeds 10 through 12. Historically, they've about a third of the first round games. This year's double digit darlings are San Diego State, Old Dominion and Utah State.
Play the KY3 Basketball Brackets contest
Our experts brackets:
Listen to a 30 minute podcast discussion about the NCAA tournament.
Also try:
Bracket Tactics: How to Pick the National Champion
