Strong thunderstorms continue this evening. A Severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 2 AM. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until Tuesday. The thunderstorms are forming along a cold front which will slowly slide south.
The latest radar trends shows the storm intensity weakening but there is considerable redevelopment out in Kansas. This is lead to what is called training, where storms form and move across the same area time and again. Flooding becomes a concern under this type of pattern. Tonight 1-3 inches is possible with localized amounts to 4 inches possible. The storms should last through much of the night before winding down Tuesday morning.
The weather forecast tonight is a bit uncertain at this time but will be clearer by 9 or 10 PM tonight. The thunderstorms have not yet begun to develop. Where they do form and how strong they initially are will be big players in where the heavy rain lines up and how much falls tonight.
The area with the highest confidence at this time is along and north of I-44. There could be a window for severe weather including hail and gusty winds this evening from the time the storms form to around 11PM. After 11PM they will become heavy rain makers and there is some potential for training of storms.
This means parts of the Ozarks could see repetitive storms through the night where the rain will really add up. One to three inches in my high confidence area are possible with localized amounts to 4 inches. This could cause flooding of low water crossings so motorists should use caution early Tuesday morning. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until Tuesday afternoon for much of southwest Missouri.
Temperatures tonight will drop to the upper 60s in the heavy rain areas and low 70s where it remains dry. A few lingering storms are possible through mid-day Tuesday before clearing much like today. There is a slight chance for a pop up storm Wednesday with much of Thursday and Friday being dry. Late Friday a stronger cold front will approach the Ozarks setting the stage for a pleasant weekend. There will also be a chance for more storms Friday night and Saturday morning.